Mohamad Elmasry nimmt in seinem Beitrag für Al Jazeera vom 28.02.2019 das Eisenbahnunglück in Kairo zum Anlass, über die Zukunft des ägyptischen Regimes nachzudenken:
Although some macro-level economic indicators have improved under el-Sisi, micro-level indicators show that life has become much harder for the average Egyptian. A sharp reduction in fuel and electricity subsidies, introduced as a prerequisite for an International Monetary Fund loan, has made it difficult for many Egyptians to pay for essentials. Inflation has been a major issue as well, with prices of basic goods rising dramatically since 2013. Under el-Sisi, the Egyptian pound lost more than half of its value.
Since the Sisi-led coup of 2013, Egypt has been propped up by billions of dollars in grants from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, given the volatile oil market and the ongoing challenges Riyadh is facing with its Vision 2030 project, this financial flow is unlikely to continue.
More importantly perhaps, Egypt’s political system does not lend itself to an economic revival. State institutions are largely inefficient and corrupt, with an outdated and oversized bureaucracy and a penchant for opaque decision-making.
Moreover, Egypt is steeped in a military dictatorship, with constitutional amendments likely to allow el-Sisi to remain Egypt’s president through at least 2034. The government has systematically eliminated all forms of political opposition, imprisoning and harassing political leaders and activists, and cracking down on dissent within the ranks of the army and the pro-Sisi political elite. Human rights abuses are worse than ever.