Whatever happens in Khartoum, the country still faces an economic crisis, poor governance, and multiple conflicts.
Ein Beitrag von Ben Parker in The New Humanitarian | 16.04.2019
Needs have remained stubbornly high for years, using up an average of over $600 million in donor funding in each of the last five years just to tackle immediate priorities, including food aid, health, and education. The country also hosts more than 800,000 refugees from South Sudan. […]
Macroeconomic conditions are “extremely poor”, according to the Famine Early Warning System Network, known as FEWS NET, a US-funded food security monitor: some 13 percent of the population (5.76 million people) are in “crisis” or “emergency” levels of hunger.
In addition, the national currency is rapidly depreciating against the dollar, bread prices have jumped since the government lifted subsidies on imported wheat, and fuel price hikes have almost doubled the cost of transport. Cereal prices are “250 percent above the five-year average”, according to FEWS NET. […]
A senior African diplomat based in Sudan urged caution, saying the risks were high if the whole military-run edifice was rapidly dismantled, given weak institutions and civil society, widespread disaffection, and smaller conflicts across the country.
Despite the “euphoria” of the peaceful protests, “the cracks could start to show, and the whole thing start to crumble,” the diplomat warned. “They’ve got to hold this entity called Sudan together.” […]
Khartoum may hope for help from the Gulf in the short term: Sudan is aligned with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and Sudanese troops and militia are fighting alongside them in Yemen. Riyadh quickly promised fuel, wheat, and medicines in a welcome package to the interim military regime.
UN states and donor nations currently pay over $1.5 billion a year to contain conflicts and humanitarian needs in Sudan. The UN and NGOs have prepared a humanitarian response plan for 2019 to support 4.4 million people. The final draft, with a price tag of about $1 billion, was under review by the government before the political crisis erupted on 6 April, the UN official said. The cost of the appeal was similar to recent years.
Der Schuldenstand beträgt 50 Mrd $. Wenn der US-Boykott endet, könnte eine Umschuldung über den IMF erfolgen. Einer der größten Geldgeber ist die EU, wobei bekanntlich im Wesentlichen Militärinvestitionen zur Abwehr der Migrationsbewegungen aus dem Horn von Afrika gefördert werden.
Darfur, and other conflicts
As well as Darfur in the west, a clutch of small-scale rebellions and tensions are simmering on the periphery of Sudan, especially in the southern border areas of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, and in Kassala in the east.
A UN-African Union peacekeeping operation in Darfur – with a budgeted cost of $715 million in the current year – is due to close at the end of 2020, handing over some responsibilities to the civilian arm of the UN, aid groups, and the Sudanese authorities.
Es folgt ein Überblick über die genannten Konfliktherde.