In einem Artilel vom 01. August bei ISPI beschreiben die Autoren Arturo Varvelli und Matteo Villa die Rolle der Milizen als konstitutiven Faktor in Libyen. Die Milizen hätten sich als regionale Oligopole etabliert.
n Libya, militias are also primarily responsible for the process of industrialisation and concentration of illicit trafficking – including of human beings – which has been seen in recent years. The situation in Libya today is in fact less and less similar to that of 2012-2014, when a larger number of groups competed to expand their influence and control both on the ground and on the management of trafficking [1]. Today, on the contrary, the situation appears to be much clearer in many of the cities along the Tripolitania coast, as the role of some actors has been consolidating to the detriment of others. To draw an economic comparison, this evolution could be defined as a shift from a situation of imperfect competition to one of oligopoly [2].
Bezüglich der Boat people fassen die Autoren zusammen:
To convince oneself of the progressive concentration of the trafficking of migrants in Libya, one only needs to look at two things: the distribution of the coastal sites from where migrants are allowed to leave and the long-lasting, sharp drop in departures. From a geographical point of view, until the beginning of 2015 the departures, although concentrated in Tripolitania, were more evenly distributed along the Libyan coast. Since then, they have been concentrated in areas a few stretches of kilometres, west of Tripoli, between Sabratha and the surrounding towns, or immediately east, between Misrata and Gasr Garabulli. In short, the number of places from which migrants leave has reduced, with periods in which only one of the two „trafficking regions“ has led the great majority of the flows, as testimony to a continually greater control of the trafficking by certain militias along the west coast [3].
On the temporal front, the long-lasting drop in departures from the Libyan coasts, which has just entered into its thirteenth month (see Fig. 1), indicates that a limited number of actors on the mainland have succeeded in obtaining control of the trafficking, managing over a long time to condition the entity of the departures, as if on tap. Such a sharp and prolonged drop would not be possible in a situation of greater trafficking competitiveness, where, with constant demand to reach Europe, the loss of one player would quickly be replaced by another.